General description: The goal of this pre-workshop assignment is to encourage you to contemplate a few questions that reflect main goals of our workshop. We do not expect written answers. We simply don’t want to surprise you, as some of these questions need some thought.
Question #1. What does the term “extreme precipitation” means to you?
Question #2. Consider a major decision you make in your job when there is a forecast of extreme precipitation. Think about the process of decision making: who is involved in the decision, what steps are taken, what outcomes and goals are reached through the decision making process?
Question #3. Are there any differences between how your jurisdiction is affected by a short-duration heavy rainfall event (e.g., 10 inches in 2 days) as compared to a long-duration event (e.g., 20 inches in 30 days)? If so, what are those differences?
Question #4. How skillful does a precipitation forecast have to be for you to use it? How does that expectation differ for short-duration versus long-duration events? For example, if we forecast a heavy rainfall event 2 weeks in advance and we’re only correct 50% of the time, is that forecast still helpful? What percentage would you need for it to be helpful and how does that change with event duration?
Question #5. Is uncertainty important to your decision making? For example, do you prepare for the most likely event, the most damaging, or a range of potential impacts?